Deflating
Tuesday, January 27, 2009 at 07:31AM
Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

With some Asian markets closed (light futures trade) and a relieved (squeezing bank sector), European market led to the US markets flying out of the gate.    A sugar coated open and nothing else.   Unfortunately,  as the previous 7 trading days indicated a breakout over 850 high or 800 low on the PSX is proving to be insurmountable for the Bulls and Bears, respectively.    A 'catalyst'  is deeply needed as the Bull and Bear and their two man saw grind this market into woodchips and sawdust.   At his point ETF traders of the eg. SPY are getting blown to pieces if they are not quick to act.    Any move is not sustainable even for a few hours,  direction changes constantly.    While this battle or better put,  lack of conviction  on both sides plays out , we wait for catalyst.   Financials couldn’t  keep up to the European squeeze and Crude peaked ~48 and fizzled away gains by close for most of those components as well.    In the meantime,  we’ll continue to be selective and hopefully put a few more points on the scorecard in individual plays/ sectors.    Example of going long education stocks and than shorting at their highs when we said it was not probable for them to breakout.   Today,  you were laughing if you kept tight the ESI down to 110 from 130, APOL to 79 from high 80’s in a just a few days.  Now that they have pull-backed,  we start thinking long again with these names.     The premise of shorting  CAT as a machinery sector play last week proved to be a premkt highlight story off earnings with the stock sinking to a $30 low.

The 850+ is looking to be a tough task to the upside, (simply the bulls failed today), maybe even 840 is too much as todays move just petered out,  even with better eco data.   The thousands of jobs cuts in household names hit home, if they hadn't yet.   Somehow when you see high profile corporations slash jobs in the thousands practically all at one,  it rings worse to many than a non payroll number or creeping up unemployment rate in percentage terms month after month.

No direction,  no conviction,  maybe until more headlines hit speculating on the TARP II/"bad bank/ stimulus.   Earnings still setting a negative tone (CAT latest),  as we hit the busiest stretch of announcements.

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