Worrisome Techs...
Thursday, September 4, 2008 at 06:56AM
Jon

For a while now,  much of the market focus has been concentrated on the capital markets.   The banks, investment brokers, lenders... were all under spotlight in a constant fashion.    That was until maybe last week or so where all of a sudden, focus seems to be away from the group.   Is this a way to stabilize the market?   Perhaps, or maybe market is brewing some perfect storm down the road.    As market participants, we are actually glad that, for a change, this market isn't being strangled at the mercy of any particular credit news.    The fact that the entire financial group is behaving much better than any other group right now is also the reason we aren't seeing any follow through to the downside.   The Discretionary group noted yesterday is the other.  This is at least true for DJIA and SPX!     Before the earning season kicks off and without any earthshattering bad news from financial sector, we can't see this market being pushed down much further.     The cushion from the financial/ discretionary groups and the demise of commodity group are providing, believe it or not, a stabilizing ground for the overall market.  Unfortunately, as traders these disinflation groups ( financials/ discretionary) and the stocks in the groups from HD to AXP to MCD are not exactly big daily/ weekly gainer potential we like to trade.

Hopefully, this ignorant trend will not last much longer as we await the earning reports from major financial institutions the next little while.   The one part of the market that showed the biggest weakness these days, is the technology group.    Last week, we noted that COMP and NAZ charts were flashing some warning signals and then DELL news followed.   Today, we have GLW guiding down due to glut.    Ok, these two aren't small players in any means and they represent a pretty wide space of technology group also.  Today, the SOX was down over 4%.   It's no coincidence that many of the popular tech names are testing recent lows or heading toward the July area. 

The point is, technology group often foretells the global economy and the bad guidance from a few key players can really spell the shape of our economy.   We are monitoring the market closely for any more warnings like these.  Also, one look at the commodity stocks this week and you know this is not because of a firm $USD.  There is an underlying, yet not totally known or accepted factors involved.   One could be hedge firms in trouble and liquidating, but the real factor is a probable worldwide slowdown being priced in.     Right now, cash and discipline are the only two things you need to survive through this market.   We have been scanning daily gainers/new high list to get a feel where the money is moving but the results have been pretty much the same last little while.   Oh yes, you can tell by the number of alerts we've been putting out the last few weeks.    However, this isn't to say that this trend will continue like this and we are hopeful that sooner than later, opportunities will pop out in front of us to give us something to be excited about.  It always does in the markets.

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