Your Personal Trader - DJIM Journal '08

..desperately needed.....Basically, we are making a general comment with regard to all the plays out there. Yes, apparently, other than FNM/FRE to the downside, it's pretty much an uncertainty for any big movers to have follow through action to the upside this summer. There was no shortage of action today and we have to give it to this market despite some grave concern for two of our largest mortgage lenders. As we said yesterday in conclusion, it is possible for the commodities to run with the broad market. We had spurts of this all day and if it wasn't for this FNM/FRE mess it would have happened!

Here's the thing, with that many movers with 4-10%+ or 5 pts+ gains from our Shadowlisted commodity plays, ...including solar..

ENER	+10.28%
MON	+4.63%
RIMM	+3.44%
POT	+1.27%
AFAM	-2.07%

SOL	+9.26%
X	+4.62%
ANR	+3.39%
FLS	+0.80%
FSYS	-6.78%

HK	+8.43%
CRK	+4.62%
MOS	+3.29%
PRXL	+0.03%

CLR	+7.28%
CMP	+4.36%
MT	+2.87%
ICLR	0.00%

JRCC	+6.76%
BIDU	+4.01%
RIG	+2.86%
DRYS	-0.03%

PCX	+6.22%
SCHN	+3.96%
WLT	+2.06%
CEDC	-0.08%

GDP	+5.97%
PVA	+3.96%
ROCK	+1.58%
USPH	-0.15%

FSLR	+5.51%
EBIX	+3.82%
ILMN	+1.57%
AXYS	-0.44%

IPHS	+5.40%
CF	+3.69%
MEE	+1.39%
CRL	-0.54%

CLF	+5.31%
AKS	+3.62%
AAPL	+1.33%
ANSS	-0.76%

......you couldn't help but to feel it's more than just a mere coincidence. Can a sector rally be in the works? Of course, we've all been fooled a few times since the correction began weeks ago and it's probably best leaving the question unanswered at the end of the day. As traders, even though we act often off our instinct, we still have to be open-minded for any possibilities. Yes, as many probably agree, we are sick and tired of playing intraday points because trends last 5 minutes. Today was just another dizzy day. We'd like to see some meaningful follow through whether its' from E&P Shales or Solars or Steels/ Coals or any recent EPS plays.

Earlier today we had the oil inventory report that was considered very disappointing for the commodity groups. However, crude oil reversed early weakness and still ended up with a pretty healthy gain. In case you haven't noticed, oil price has basically been in the same price range during the last few trading sessions. With its positive reaction to a negative inventory report today, you can't help but think we may have hit a bottom already. Many oil related stocks behaved really well today and you can certainly feel the same enthusiasm across all of the commodity sector. We aren't saying there's going to be an immediate and powerful commodity rally here. We are simply pointing out that we like what we see the last couple of days from the commodity area and we have to be prepared to give it a good ride if the action is confirmed. Speaking of which, we are looking for some follow through moves from many gainers today. Follow through moves do not necessarily mean another huge up move the day or two after. We feel any subsequent firming action from the gainers today would be considered very healthy and we'd then view it as launch pad for some potential sustained up moves.

In terms of individual plays, our alert buy of ENER exploded and has broken out cleanly today. It is due to report next week and the entire solar sector is getting a lift lately by various earning reports and contracts. Again, as with recent plays, if you miss a first leg up as in AFAM, FSYS or miss a breakout as in ENER yesterday wait for a decent dip/ pullback.