......" baked in", whatever we call it, it's the main reason we traded these stocks in the first place in 2007-2008. We're not disappointed or surprised by the lukewarm response to excellent earnings by the WLT, MOS, CF and probably more in the morning. These stocks were not only hot because they just happened to be in the bubbling commodity space, they were hot because they were going to produce excellent earnings in the Q`s ahead. Basically, our intentions, as always is to get in ahead of the herd and we've done it with the PCX, ANR, CMP etc.. We took advantage of the numbers we are seeing now from the commodity stocks in the weeks before!. The point is to get to the party early enough. We can`t be surprised to the reaction now, we just need a catalyst such as a weaker dollar, higher oil to go with these stellar earnings now. Simply, earnings won`t make these go by themselves as the playing field has shifted. You now need to writedown a few billion less than expected as the banks/investment firms have to get upside off a report. What a wonderful world eh!.lol. Anyways, the sentiment has changed and you can't hop on these earning plays just because of the headline. You will most likely be holding a white flag after you buy too high, too early. Beating well above consensus means diddly-squat initially, just look at the numbers below. At this point, we'd wait for the 'late to the party' to exit and for the CC's to be over with before even having a thought of re-entering. This could be an excellent opportunity to get a piece at these prices or lower in the days ahead, but we need an extra catalyst to hitch a ride.
Mosaic beats by $0.24, beats on revs ,Reports Q4 (May) earnings of $1.88 per share, excluding non $0.05 gain, $0.24 better than the First Call consensus of $1.64; revenues rose 105.8% year/year to $3.47 bln vs the $2.85 bln consensus
CF Industries beats by $1.42, misses on revs, Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $5.02 per share, includes as $0.92 mark-to-market gain, $1.42 better than the First Call consensus of $3.60; revenues rose 36.8% year/year to $1.16 bln vs the $1.21 bln consensus.
Walter Inds beats by $0.37, beats on revs Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.94 per share, $0.37 better than the First Call consensus of $0.57; revenues rose 24.8% year/year to $370 mln vs the $304.7 mln consensus.
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As for the market, the easiest and safest trade discussed late last week is happening. This stuff is radioactive and we're not swimming (buying this market) into the dirty bath water all around you. Thank you, MER!, you may dilute (shares) yourself by 45%, but now you're so transparent |