We Wait...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008 at 06:55AM
Jon

There was simply not much of news flow two days before the Fed meeting.    We'd have to admit that market has done a pretty good job just drifting around the same level.    Today's a day we choose not to do a whole lot.     In AH, we had Visa reported number that is not liked too much by traders.   Perhaps, the stock has ran up just too much ahead of this report.    Coupled with many stock initiations on Visa today, it basically smelled "sell on news" right up until the report hits.  MA is today and we'll be eyeing this report as we do every Q.

The exception to our relative quiet trading day was SOHU.   This familiar internet stock came out what we thought was a blockbuster report and guidance.    This is also in the same theme of recent reports from the likes of GOOG and BIDU.    However, when we compare the report of SOHU with those of the other two, we just found it to be much better on a relative basis.    Given the valuation of the other two, it is a no brainer that we think SOHU can go higher, as long as the internet group is relatively intact.    Sohu website is also the official website for the 2008 Olympics and this can also have another spin to it leading to the summer event.     In any case, when you look at its report, guidance, momentum, float, relative valuation and Olympic exposure, there's really nothing to dislike.     We just couldn't wait for any pullback today and bought a position even after a 10% gap up.    We'd use any weakness to add more shares and we'd keep this one as a core play from now on.

As far as the rest of the market, there's mixed signal from various sector and the best we can do is describe this action as consolidation.     Some sectors are always more volatile than others as we witnessed some extreme volatility from the Agri group due to downgrades.     We aren't concerned about the volatility in the commodity area as the higher they go, the more volatile they get, naturally.     Basically, we just have to accept it as part of the play and firmly stick to the big picture when approaching them.

On Wednesday, we also have the GDP number which can also affect the market sentiment and we'll keep a close eye on it.    Until the Fed meeting, we are likely not to trade too much other than juggling a few position to a comfortable level.

Article originally appeared on Your Personal Trader (http://www.yourpersonaltrader.com/).
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