..staring into the Abyss
Monday, March 3, 2008 at 10:00PM
Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

The market pit abyss was right before our eyes today, one we have accepted to happen just to get all the talk of testing the bottoms of January out of the way.   It's March damn it and if we don't get over it soon, we just prolong the inevitable move up sometime this year from happening.   A real move, not just one to test 12800 all over again and then get pushed back down.   The backdrop was perfect today as the fast moving techs, RIMM, AAPL were getting crushed and the one symbol we watch most for direction, the small cap ETF IWM broke down hard with volume in tow around 2:15pm.   We had all the makings of a terrible day tomorrow,  if the DIA, SPY, QQQQ's just followed IWM into the door of the abyss!.     If we had the bad close as we noted today, those DIA, SPY's, QQQQ's would have followed without a doubt later in the day and screwed up many a support lines on the charts heading into tomorrows trade.    Instead of following IWM's lead, the DIA/SPY held on and about 3pm began to reverse and we ended slightly down on the DJIA(-7 ) and painted some green on the SPX.    We may have to accept that this was the beginning of a bounce,  but if we've gone this far the last 3 and a half days...let's just get it over with and test the pit .    We know this won't be a bottomless pit as there are tons waiting to buy this market when it happens.   So as the Nike 'swoosh'  said it.....Just do it!..!    If we do get an upward bias tomorrow it will be because the odds just favor it,  not because this move today was of any true substance.   If we don't move up Tuesday, we can blame it on the things we didn't like today as potential precursors.    Firstly, we watch the IWM as its a more honest reading of those trading intraday and its a better barometer for the kinds of stocks we trade and we simply didn't like it, today.   Secondly, the destruction in fast movers we trade on the NASD..RIMM, AAPL, GOOG were being trashed and with the Financials offering no reason to think they are ready to reverse....we are left with the question, who is capable of leading any move up now?.     After hours the QQQQ's are simply at the open price on January 23rd.   A little spooky.      Also, considering all the huge intradays moves we've seen in past months,  reversing around +100 on DJIA and 20 on NASD and having the majority of our DJIM watch listed be limp during the last hour didn't generate much buying excitement from us.  Actually..none at all.   The question here and now, is do the Bulls just let support crumble or do they make another half ass attempt for a rally??.   We actually don't think that too many shorts got positioned on this last leg up and then were taken by surprise at velocity of the drop since mid day Wednesday to set themselves up.   It makes us wonder how much short covering there would be to fuel a move of any substance and duration at this point for the Bulls.  Doubtful any rally would run anywhere close to 12800 this time before turning back to where we are now.  Basically an early March break before we test the January pit.   Anyways, so much could happen tomorrow that it almost seems right nothing will happen.    There is really nothing on the horizon tomorrow (no eco' data)  that could fuel a move either way other than the technical stuff.     Maybe the real set up on the horizon, one that will decide the markets direction Tuesday is a News Headline

Article originally appeared on Your Personal Trader (http://www.yourpersonaltrader.com/).
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