DJIM #6  2008
Monday, February 11, 2008 at 08:00AM
Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Entering this week of trading, traders are seemingly in a conundrum due to the last two trading days.  After a couple of huge upturns and downturns, the market traded in a tight narrow range and no one really knows what swing will come next.   Of course, the market usually consolidates after big turns,  but since the market is near recent lows you have uncertainty come in.   Is it support finding its way above 12000 or is just a time out before that line in the sand falls?.     You have the Bears perplexed as more take on long trades and you have Bulls taking on some short bets.    At least this is what we are sensing, not only by the most recent action but by the general tone if you scope what is being said among traders on blogs etc.   It's definitely a puzzle and most are waiting for the next piece to drop to send this market either way.   Until that happens, we may get more of the same and that is consolidation action taking place early in the week.   Unfortunately, neither the Bulls nor the Bears knows what may be the next driver to make this market go their way.    The Bulls have used up their interest rate hikes, the Bears most of the economic bombshells like last weeks ISM.     What to do with the puzzle?.    One thing is certain and something to rely on is something you see, you may not always believe in it, but most are showing a reliance on charts now.    Everyone is watching support and resistance levels as a guide in a confusing market.     Actually...how can you not?, we all saw the importance of resistance during the Bear rally as the market hit a wall at 12800 Dow!.  In times of indecision it seems all have their eyes focused on TA and nothing is more simple than understanding resistance and support.     A wall is a wall and you don't need extensive TA training in getting with the program.     Simply, we want 12400 broken to have a potential retest of 12800 and not have 12000 broken on a downside close.     Considering this market can pull out a -250/50 day at a snap of a finger, we can see those levels toyed with at any point this week.   If you are turtled and away from the market, you should stay that way as a clearer picture may emerge to go either long or short very soon.  If you are dipping like us, it's best to hedge your bets and keep to small pieces.

Chemicals/Agri,  we discussed the need to contain ones after hour exuberance to $116 over CF earnings.   It wasn't much of a surprise to see the stock trade to as low as $105 during Fridays session.    What was somewhat surprising was to see MOS and MON make subtle gains and hold 9ema.   Due to CF's action our view did not change and we are biased to the downside for the reasons noted heading into Fridays trading.  POT' action was not fulfilling either.   We have AGU reporting this week and this could be the last short term blow for this sec'.

Coals, one place to stay long is seemingly in this group with this bunch of stocks making new highs last week. We've listed earlier the lot from the expensive to the cheapies.

We have some interesting reports this week stretching from FSLR to BIDU.   We all know the power these have on the rest of their sectors.  It will be a very exciting this week, up or down for momo traders.   So, let's wait and see what these reports provoke as far as trading possibilities go this week.

Article originally appeared on Your Personal Trader (http://www.yourpersonaltrader.com/).
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