We wish we had an answer! What we know now is that if anyone bought yesterday's late rally, he/she would be in a world of pain at this moment. A glance at charts shows most stocks finished below the afternoon lows that proceeded the late rally, just like the indices. Perhaps, had market closed at the low yesterday, today might have turned out differently! Well, now we will never know! Another problem arising from the action last few days is those fooled Monday will be more hesitant to enter the next time. The problem with the market these days isn't the lack of solutions. The real reason why participants are liquidating is the combination of "no confidence + fear + forced selling"! The most important aspect of those three component is still the lack of confidence! If very few believe the bailout is going to work and very few believe the system still functions, how do you expect people to step back into this market? . We need a co-ordinated rate cut right now, it's a start. Today was a disappointment it didn't happen pre-market. Will a rally last if it happens, that's the big question!. The SPX must hold around 1000 showing support or we are in what you call a secular decline, not a cyclical bear in a bull market.
Before, we understand the market action, we have to understand the psychology behind those who are selling or buying! Right now, the total lack of confidence in our capital system is forcing people to stand aside until there's a sign that (read this) CONFIDENCE is restored! There's no point analyzing technical charts or fundamental aspect of a stock when there's simply only one trade out there, SELL! The buyers, they're cherry picking for a harvest one day far removed from today. Now, one of these days, selling will slow down and we will reach a point where enough is enough! We just don't know when that day is and how soon it'll come. What we hope to see is that that day comes on a day filled with bad news.
The lift of the short selling ban is coming up in a day or two and it's going to be interesting to see the effect of that. Like we have said before, we are dealing with an unprecedented level of crisis on a global scale. Anything is possible at this moment and the best thing we can do at this moment is NOT to speculate on an outcome whatsoever. We absolutely have to let the market itself play it out. When stocks' behavior becomes logical and sensible again, that's when we apply our skill and strategy to make most out of it. If you have been doing nothing, you are winning!.