..how 'bout bailing out the traders..
Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 08:00AM
Jon

As all of the focus is on the bailout deal this week,  we think traders also need to be bailed out from the market action lately.   It's just extremely tough to gauge market sentiment day to day, hour to hour.    In all honesty, whether the credit bailout deal is passed or not,  nobody really has any clue as to what will happen in the weeks ahead.  It seems the focus finally is going to a worldwide slowdown and the consequences of such.

Now that September is behind us,  we can look back and say we just had one of the rockiest months ever.    At this point, we are simply monitoring the market to see what sectors to avoid coming into the earning season.   Oh yes, the credit crisis may have stolen the show in the past few weeks, but earning movers will take over once companies start to report in mass and/ or miss in mass.   MOS', report will likely get the whole Ag-Chem sector downgraded and we'd watch for a potential fallout to other commodity stocks in other sectors.  Also,  IBM dropped 6% today on the fear of profit worry and this may be the trend for many big corporations that have a global exposure.    Unfortunately for us traders, it looks like we have to adapt a new mentality in our trading strategy.     Basically, we have to incorporate market pessimism into our trading strategy to the fullest.   Another alternative is to go back to our early days and look for undiscovered companies that are safer, quiet plays such as ICXT, EBS, another is SQNM  to avoid the crazy daily wide ranges of stocks we're used to. 

Bottom line, we are basically getting a break today and tomorrow until the House decides the fate of the bailout deal on Friday.  In either case, action should pick up toward the end of the week and perhaps well into next week.


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